3Q Economic Forecast Survey

The following is a more detailed quarterly version of the annumal US forecast survey published above.

US Forecast Consensus

Series Name	Q1 16	Q2 16	Q3 16	Q4 16	Q1 17	Q2 17	Q3 17	Q4 17	15 Ann	16 Ann	17 Ann
Nominal GDP	18297.00	18481.75	18676.50	18881.00	19005.50	19217.00	19451.00	19641.00	17953.50	18554.75	19348.75
Nominal GDP Chg %	2.72	4.36	4.44	4.30	4.33	4.20	4.15	4.05	3.46	3.66	4.25
Real GDP	16590.66	16696.66	16836.00	16914.33	16872.00	16973.00			16433.66	16805.33	17222.00
Real GDP Chg %	1.86	2.70	2.52	2.52	2.13	2.15	2.05	1.95	2.44	2.18	2.34
Industrial Prod Index	105.35	105.70	106.25	106.70	105.60	106.20			107.30	106.00	108.10
Industrial Prod %	-0.12	0.32	1.97	2.30	2.45	2.20	2.25	2.30	1.45	0.12	2.00
Capacity Utilization	76.10	76.05	76.15	76.30	75.90	76.20	76.60	76.80	77.90	76.15	76.70
Housing Starts	1.13	1.16	1.20	1.23	1.28	1.31	1.32	1.59	1.11	1.19	1.29
Total Vehicle Sales	17.30	17.43	17.33	17.26	16.90	16.80	16.75	16.70	17.43	17.33	17.06
Real Disposable Inc	12466.00	12538.00	12607.00	12677.00					12219.00	12572.00	12861.00
Real Dispos Inc Chg %	3.53	2.76	2.56	2.50	2.25	2.30	2.25	2.30	3.43	2.93	2.30
Unemployment Rate	4.96	4.30	4.26	4.18	4.66	4.60	4.55	4.50	5.10	4.80	4.56
Corporate Profits	1513.00	1415.10	1432.50	1440.90	1466.40	1495.40			1538.70	1424.10	1498.00
Corp Profits Chg %	0.05	1.45	1.60	4.20	4.65	1.40	1.50	1.50	-0.70	2.45	1.70
Consumer Price Index	238.90	239.95	241.20	242.50					237.05	240.60	245.95
CPI Chg %	0.44	1.82	1.96	2.10	2.06	2.00	1.95	1.85	0.24	1.26	2.24
GDP Price Index	108.43	110.77	111.22	111.69	112.40	112.98			109.63	111.03	113.05
GDP Price Deflator	1.00	1.47	1.75	1.82	2.20	2.00	2.00	1.90	1.02	1.45	1.90
Personal Consump Exp	110.30	110.70	111.25	111.70					109.30	111.00	113.00
PCE Chg %	0.90	1.42	1.60	1.76	2.06	1.96	2.00	1.95	0.58	1.20	1.94
PPI Chg %	-0.10	0.00	0.60	1.70	2.20	2.30	2.20	2.20	-0.90	0.60	2.20
Crude Oil WTI	31.90	37.65	38.45	39.95	49.30	51.00	54.00	57.70	48.70	37.00	45.15
Prime Rate	3.50	3.52	3.62	3.77	3.75	4.00	4.00	4.25	3.32	3.60	4.20
Fed Funds Target	0.41	0.43	0.49	0.62	0.69	0.85	0.94	1.10	0.20	0.49	1.01
Treasury Bill	0.29	0.37	0.48	0.66	0.62	0.80	0.79	0.96	0.06	0.45	1.11
LIBOR 3 mo	0.62	0.64	0.68	0.84	0.92	1.08	1.16	1.33	0.31	0.69	1.12
2 Yr Treasury Note	0.73	0.58	0.67	0.85	0.90	1.13	1.17	1.36	0.69	0.71	1.14
5 Yr Treasury Note	1.21	1.01	1.08	1.21	1.25	1.40	1.49	1.56	1.52	1.13	1.43
10 Yr Treasury Bond	2.05	2.02	2.07	2.17	1.85	1.94	1.76	1.82	2.16	2.04	2.39
Aaa Corp Yields	3.93	3.75	3.90	4.10	4.19	4.30			3.91	3.95	4.27
Baa Corp Yields	5.31	5.00	5.15	5.25	5.42	5.48			4.99	5.16	5.50

Sources: BMO Capital, Congressional Budget Office, Federal Reserve, PNC Economics and Wells Fargo.